Turbulence is set to worsen due to climate change.

Severe turbulence recently hit a Singapore Airlines flight from London, resulting in one death and several injuries. The exact details of what happened on board the Boeing 777-300ER flight to Singapore remain unclear. Airline tracking websites noted that the aircraft dropped around 1,800 meters in three minutes when it encountered rough air beyond the Bay of Bengal.

Predicting turbulence is challenging because it is caused by small-scale eddies that are too localized for most weather models to detect. According to the International Air Transport Association, turbulence is the primary cause of non-fatal injuries to passengers and crew. However, fatalities and severe injuries on large aircraft are rare. Between 2009 and 2021, 146 passengers and crew were seriously injured in turbulence incidents, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.

In December 2022, 20 people were hospitalized after turbulence on a Hawaiian Airlines flight from Phoenix to Honolulu. In March 2023, a passenger died after severe turbulence hit the business jet she was traveling on. Last August, 11 people required hospitalization after a Delta flight encountered rough air on its descent into Atlanta, resulting in injuries such as lacerations, broken bones, head wounds, and loss of consciousness, primarily because passengers were not wearing their seatbelts.

“It is not for nothing that airlines recommend keeping seat belts loosely fastened throughout a flight, be it long or short,” general aviation expert John Strickland told the BBC. Flight attendants, who are on their feet more than passengers, are particularly vulnerable, being 24 times more likely to be seriously injured.

Turbulence is worsening due to climate change. A study by meteorologists at the University of Reading in the UK found that skies are up to 55% bumpier than four decades ago. Warmer air from carbon dioxide emissions is altering air currents in the jet stream, exacerbating clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic and globally.

Between 1979 and 2020, severe turbulence over the North Atlantic increased by 55%, from 17.7 hours to 27.4 hours annually. Moderate turbulence in the area increased by 37%, from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence rose 17%, from 466.5 to 546.8 hours. Other busy flight routes over the United States, Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic have also seen significant increases in turbulence.

“We should be investing in improved turbulence forecasting and detection systems to prevent the rougher air from translating into bumpier flights in the coming decades,” says Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading and co-author of the study. “Airlines will need to start thinking about how they will manage the increased turbulence, as it costs the industry $150 to $500 million [€134 to €465 million] annually in the United States alone,” adds Mark Prosser, the meteorologist who led the study. “Every additional minute spent traveling through turbulence increases wear and tear on the aircraft, as well as the risk of injuries to passengers and flight attendants.”